How to Lose a Government in Four Months
Mongolia’s leadership collapses (again), Libya and Lebanon reopen old wounds, and the world feels permanently one push away from protest.
Hey, this is Sham Jaff, your very own news curator.
Issue #445: Mongolia might be next in the Gen Z protest parade. The government there just collapsed, again, after only four months in power. The prime minister and parliament speaker are both out, and people are asking: if we’re so rich in coal, why isn’t anyone feeling it?
Meanwhile, Hannibal Gadhafi (yes, Muammar’s son, and yes, Hannibal’s really his name) might finally walk free after a decade in a Lebanese prison without ever being charged. His case is caught up in one of Lebanon’s oldest political mysteries, but Libya’s turning up the pressure for his release.
Also in this issue: Taiwan’s female reformist, Peru’s 38-year-old president, how Madagascar’s Gen Z uprising ended with a general, some rare good news from Balochistan, rugby on horseback in Kazakhstan, one year of Claudia Sheinbaum, inside El Salvador’s prisons, Egypt’s Gen Z answer to Amr Diab, and the surprising link between loving your partner’s pet and staying married.
Talk soon,
Sham
Mongolia’s government just imploded. Again.
What happened
Mongolia’s parliament just voted out Prime Minister Gombojavyn Zandanshatar, only four months after he took office.
Why this matters: It’s another shake-up inside the country’s ruling party, which has been struggling to keep things stable. Mongolia is one of the few democracies in that part of the world. It’s sandwiched between Russia and China, two authoritarian neighbors. This new development is deepening a political crisis in one of Asia’s most resource-rich but chronically unstable democracies.
Tell me more
Out of 126 lawmakers, 71 voted to remove him, meaning the majority had lost confidence in his leadership. His removal sent shockwaves through Mongolia’s economy. Bonds fell (even though a day earlier Moody’s had upgraded Mongolia’s credit rating to its best level since 2018), and to make matters worse, just one day before Zandanshatar was ousted, Dashzegviin Amarbayasgalan, the parliament speaker and a rival within the same party, resigned following an ethics probe pushed by fellow members of the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). Yes, it’s that messy within the ruling party.
Who was Zandanshatar?
Zandanshatar isn’t new to politics. He used to be a banker and later served as foreign minister and parliamentary speaker. In June, he became prime minister after his predecessor, Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, was forced to resign amid corruption questions involving his son’s wealth and reports that he’d given expensive gifts to a woman he’d proposed to (look at those two love birds). Once in office, Zandanshatar tried to show he was serious about reform. He cut 2.3 trillion tugrik (about US$640 million) from the 2025 budget to shrink the deficit, especially as coal prices (Mongolia’s biggest export to China) started dropping.
But?
But those cuts and his decision-making style didn’t sit well with everyone. Lawmakers accused him of trying to bypass parliament when appointing a new justice minister, and they claimed one of his recent policy changes might have cost the state money by reducing the royalties companies pay for coal and iron ore.
What’s at stake here?
Well, not to be dramatic, but sort of everything. Mongolia is rich in natural resources, especially coal, copper, and rare earth minerals, but it’s struggling economically. Prices for its main exports have dropped, inflation is high, wages are flat, and people are really tired of corruption. Plus, all these prime ministers and ministers come from the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which has been in charge for most of the past 15 years. It’s supposed to be center-left, but over time it’s become what people now call “the establishment.” Mongolians are losing patience with it, and feel they haven’t seen the benefits of the country’s resource wealth (which should have come, in their opinion, from the coal mining boom).
What happens now?
The country’s president, Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh, gets to nominate a new prime minister, who will then need approval from parliament. But since the MPP still controls most seats, they’ll likely pick another insider; meaning not much will actually change. Meanwhile, investors and businesses are nervous. Mongolia’s economy depends heavily on foreign mining and trade with China and Russia, and political instability scares investors away. Plus, the “ghost of Gen Z protests” is roaming around in the region. Is Mongolia next? Tbd.
Gadhafi’s son is still in prison in Lebanon – he’s never been charged
What happened
After ten years in a Lebanese prison without ever being charged, Hannibal Gadhafi, one of the sons of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, has finally been told he can go free, but only if he pays US$11 million in bail.
Why this matters: This case shows how courts in Lebanon are deeply connected to the country’s politics. Hannibal’s detention has nothing to do with law and everything to do with appeasing certain factions, especially the Shiite Amal movement, one of Lebanon’s oldest and most influential political groups.
Tell me more
A Lebanese judge made that decision on Friday. Hannibal’s lawyers say he doesn’t have the money and plan to appeal the bail amount, calling it absurd after a decade in detention.
How did he end up in prison?
He was abducted, plain and simple. Back in 2015, Hannibal was living in exile in Syria with his Lebanese wife and children. Then he was abducted by armed men in Lebanon, who wanted information about Moussa al-Sadr, a well-known Shiite cleric who went missing during a visit to Libya in 1978. After the abduction, Lebanese police said they “rescued” Hannibal from his captors, and then immediately locked him up themselves. Since then, he’s been detained in Beirut, mostly at a police headquarters cell, without any formal charges.
What’s he got to do with Lebanon?
The thing is, the al-Sadr case is one of Lebanon’s oldest political wounds. Moussa al-Sadr was a charismatic Shiite cleric from Iran who became one of the most important religious and political leaders in Lebanon during the 1960s and 70s. When he arrived, Lebanon’s Shiites were the country’s poorest and least represented community. Al-Sadr changed that.
He founded the Movement of the Deprived and later the Amal Movement, which gave Shiites political visibility and social programs like schools, hospitals and food networks at a time when Lebanon’s Christian and Sunni elites dominated power. He also preached unity across sects, which made him widely respected. By the mid-1970s, he was a national figure and many saw him as the voice that could keep Lebanon from sliding into civil war. Then in August 1978, al-Sadr flew to Tripoli (Libya) to meet Muammar Gadhafi. The official story was that he was there to discuss cooperation between Lebanon and Libya, but he and two companions just... vanished. Libya claimed he left for Italy, and even produced fake travel documents to support that, but Italian authorities quickly proved he never arrived. From that moment, al-Sadr was gone: no body, no trace, no proof of life.
Most Lebanese believe Gadhafi had him killed after a disagreement during their meeting. Theories say al-Sadr challenged Gadhafi’s views on Islam and Arab politics, and the dictator took it personally. Hannibal, who was just a toddler at the time, has been questioned repeatedly about al-Sadr’s disappearance, but says he doesn’t know anything, and even told judges again on Friday: “I don’t remember.”
How come he’s being freed now?
Friday’s hearing was the first time since 2015 that Lebanese authorities actually questioned Gadhafi about the case. The hearing only happened because the Badreddine family (who are legally recognized as one of the victims’ families in the case) agreed to his request for release. One of their relatives, Abbas Badreddine, was the Lebanese journalist who went missing alongside al-Sadr in Libya in 1978. So this was less about new evidence and more about procedural permission. The other victim’s family, by the way, is angry about the court’s decision. The family of Muhammad Yaacoub, the third man who vanished, accused the Lebanese judiciary of bowing to Libya’s pressure. The latter is blaming Lebanese authorities for Gadhafi’s bad health; the man went on several hunger strikes to protest being held without trial. Human Rights Watch and other rights groups have said the same for years: that the charges against him don’t hold up, and keeping him locked up this long without trial is indefensible.
What happened to al-Sadr’s movement after he disappeared?
It radicalized parts of Lebanon’s Shiite community. The Amal Movement became a powerful militia during the civil war, later evolving into a mainstream political party. Out of that same environment came Hezbollah, which often acknowledges al-Sadr’s legacy but operates with a much more militant ideology. The two are currently allies. Al-Sadr also became a symbol of injustice. In Shiite areas of Lebanon, posters of him still hang next to those of other (more contemporary) leaders. His followers say the Lebanese state never did enough to investigate or demand accountability from Libya. When Muammar Gadhafi was overthrown and killed in 2011, Lebanese politicians asked the new Libyan authorities to reopen the case, but it went nowhere.
Btw, Hannibal Gadhafi had other legal troubles before ending up in a Lebanese prison. In 2008, he and his wife were arrested in Geneva for allegedly abusing two domestic workers at a luxury hotel (the case was later dropped by Swiss prosecutors), and in 2005, he was convicted in Paris for assaulting a pregnant woman and got a four-month suspended sentence.
what else happened
Bad
Israel / West Bank: A 11-year-old Palestinian boy was shot and killed by Israeli forces in the village of al-Rihiya, south of Hebron, on Thursday. “There was no threat, no provocation. Nothing,” said the parent of another child who was present, adding that a soldier “opened fire erratically” from a vehicle. According to UN figures, about 200 Palestinians, including 40 children, have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the year. And at least 1000 people since October 7, 2023. (Ground News)
Sudan: The United Nations human rights chief said that at least 53 civilians died within three days of attacks in and near a displaced people camp in El Fasher, North Darfur. (The Canadian Press)
Haiti: Doctors Without Borders closed their emergency center in Port-au-Prince. It was a “key lifeline in a city now 90% controlled b [armed groups].” (NPR)
Kenya: Kenya’s former prime minister Raila Odinga died on October 15, after reportedly suffering a heart attack during a morning walk at a hospital in India, where he was receiving treatment. (Btw, soon after the news broke, a video started circulating online that appeared to show his body being covered on a hospital bed. But the clip was AI-generated.) (Citizen Digital) Africa Uncensored has a detailed profile of who he was and what he stood for.
Senegal: Senegal’s health authorities confirmed 17 deaths in a major outbreak of Rift Valley fever that started on September 21. (Africanews)
Ecuador: The Ecuadorian Army deployed at least 5,000 personnel to Quito to “prevent vandalism”. In the past few weeks, there’s been ongoing protests against President Daniel Noboa over the rise of price of diesel fuel due to end of subsidies. (AP)
Myanmar: More than 40 people were killed, including children, and about 80 others were injured in a strike on a festival and an anti-junta protest in Chaung-U, Sagaing Region. (ABC News)
Singapore: Singapore executed a man for a drug crime. His name is Pannir Selvam Pranthaman. He was a Malaysian man convicted of drug offenses. This year, the country has executed 12 people so far. (AP)
Interesting...
Australia / Papua New Guinea: The two countries signed a defense treaty, formally granting Australia access to Papuan military facilities and requiring mutual defense in case of aggression. (BBC News)
Taiwan: Taiwan has two main political parties that shape nearly every debate on the island: the DPP (currently in power, pro-independence) and the KMT (main opposition; wants closer ties with China). The KMT last week elected Cheng Li-wun, a reformist and the only woman in the race, as its new leader. Some accused China of backing her indirectly (Taiwan’s security services found hundreds of videos posted from outside the island, promoting her, but they don’t know who is behind them). Cheng will take office in November 2025 and lead the KMT into the 2026 local elections. Her biggest challenge: convince younger voters that being pragmatic toward Beijing isn’t the same as selling out Taiwan. (AP)
North Korea: On October 10, the country hosted a major military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea. (The Diplomat)
Peru: President Boluarte (the country’s first female president) was removed and José Jerí, formerly President of Congress, was sworn in to complete her term ending in July 2026. He is the country’s eighth president in 10 years. (Bloomberg)
Indonesia: The country’s film industry uses AI to make “ambitious, high-quality movies on smaller budgets, which they couldn’t have done previously.” At the same time, creatives ranging from storyboarders to scriptwriters and visual effects artists are losing their jobs to AI. (rest of world)
South Africa: Is Cape Town really the most dangerous city, as The Guardian writes? Africa Check checked the numbers. Verdict: unproven. (Africa Check)
Costa Rica: The Supreme Electoral Court of Costa Rica requested the National Assembly to strip President Rodrigo Chaves Robles of immunity so that he can be prosecuted for corruption charges. (AP)
Barbados: Jeffrey Bostic was elected President of Barbados by the Parliament. He succeeds Sandra Mason and becomes the second president after Barbados becoming a republic. (Barbados Today)
India / Afghanistan: Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar announced the country will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, after it was shut down four years ago during the fall of Kabul. (DW)
Japan: Komeito announced their exit from the Japanese ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party. (Reuters)
Seychelles: There was also an election on the island. Patrick Herminie won the presidential election in Seychelles by earning more than 52% of the votes. Bye bye, Wavel Ramkalawan. (Reuters)
Madagascar: They actually have a new president now, and it’s a guy from the military. For my German speakers, I talked to German podcast “Die Wochendämmerung” about this development in a bit more detail. (Die Wochendämmerung)
Argentina: Sabag Montiel was sentenced to ten years for attempting to assassinate the former president of Argentina and then-vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. His girlfriend, Brenda Uliarte, was sentenced to eight years for being an accomplice. (El País)
Good
Balochistan (Pakistan): I know you read about this part of the world when there’s violence. But for three days, from October 1 to 3, 2025, the Kech Cultural Festival happened. Some 80,000 people attended, according to organizers. What they did? Discuss the role of social media in the region (that is often affected by internet shutdowns and censorship) with speakers like Baneesh Bakhsh, the first Baloch female TV host. (Global Voices)
AI use: Google’s Flood Hub uses AI to deliver flood warnings five days in advance. (rest of world)
Turkey / Kurdistan (Iraq): Turkey is moving to end a two-year ban on the use of its airspace for flights to and from Slemani (my hometown). (Amwaj)
Pakistan / Afghanistan: Afghanistan and Pakistan have been trading fire across their shared border for more than a week. It’s the worst fighting between them in years. Dozens have been killed, hundreds injured, and both sides are accusing the other of starting it. Now, delegations from both governments, led by their defense ministers, have flown to Doha, Qatar, for crisis talks. The goal: stop the shooting, and address what each side calls “cross-border terrorism.” (AP) (The reason this news is here in the “Good” section is because talking is better than shooting.)
recommendations
Read about a controversial national sport in Kazakhstan. It’s called kokpar, looks like rugby on horseback but with a 60-pound headless goat as the ball. Versions of this game have been played for centuries across Central Asia. It’s essentially similar to Afghanistan’s buzkashi or Kyrgyzstan’s kok-boru. The sport looks like this, is quite popular on social media (view the Instagram account of the Daukey Kokpar Club), and a dangerous, physical activity that requires a lot of strength (for both, the human and the horse). New safety rules are definitely required; there have been some deaths in recent years even. Some say, the danger aspect to it is the allure of it. Of course, Kazakhstan’s animal rights groups are not the biggest fans of this. “Just take fake goats.” Read more on Global Voices.
Listen… to a podcast episode on “One Year of Claudia Sheinbaum”. Mexico’s first female president has been in office for a year now. Her approval rating is still pretty high (73%). For Americas Quarterly, Brenda Estefan, professor at IPADE Business School and columnist for Reforma and Americas Quarterly, talks about the challenges ahead. For example, more than 125,000 people have gone missing in the country. She has called the problem “a national priority.” Listen to the episode here.
Watch... a documentary on El Salvador’s prisons. El Faro, a Salvadoran investigative outlet, interviewed 27 former prisoners who were jailed under President Nayib Bukele’s policy, “state of exception,” which started in 2022. None of them were gang members. Their testimonies describe systematic torture, starvation, and killings inside El Salvador’s prisons since 2022. Police and military have detained more than 86,000 people, many on quotas rather than evidence. Human rights groups estimate at least 30,000 innocent people were imprisoned. El Salvador now has the highest incarceration rate in the world (one in every 57 people is in prison). Watch the documentary here (select English for subtitles, if needed).
music video of the week
Mask on, genre off | Egyptian artist TUL8TE (Instagram) is sort of the “Amr Diab of Gen Z.” One of the most versatile artists, his 2024 album Cocktail Ghena’y blends psychedelic rock, bossa nova, flamenco, and trap. Now, he’s back with yet another hit single, “El Hob Gany”, and a music video (not really) that your older family members would approve of (that absolutely).
on a funny note
A couple in India is getting divorced, not over money, in-laws, or infidelity, but because their pets hate each other. The husband’s dog and the wife’s cat have been at war since the wedding, and after nine months of constant barking, scratched furniture, and emotional trauma (mostly the cat’s), they’ve called it quits.
2025 marriage goals: find someone whose pet’s trauma is compatible with yours.